A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that split the nation and triggered chaos, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the political, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where those defeated are resistant to losing and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unification has hidden the absence of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in academia but hardly any politicians or activists want to engage with even the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators supports unity or the existing arrangement. Each authors two pieces that strive for objectivity in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering financial and social statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover national emblems, taxes, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," said the writer. "Debate suggests an recognition of the notion that there may exist valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they favour unification but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid points, he said. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and somebody will in the end lose but all factions has got something to acquire from the opposing positions."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should engage with the debate, urged O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
